Risk Levels

Pick how the odds tilt before you open a pack — Chill, Standard, or Hot. Same pack price, same average pull, different shape of outcomes.

Before you open a standard pack, you choose a risk level: Chill, Standard, or Hot. The pack price stays the same. The average value of what you pull stays the same. What changes is the shape of the outcomes — how concentrated they are around the average versus how often you hit a big swing in either direction.

The three levels

Chill

Outcomes pulled tighter around the average. Fewer extreme misses, fewer extreme hits. Most consistent.

Standard

The default distribution. Balanced spread of outcomes. Real shot at upside without skewing variance either way.

Hot

Outcomes weighted toward the extremes. More frequent low-end pulls and more frequent big hits. Highest variance.

What stays the same — and what changes

Property	Chill	Standard	Hot
Pack price	Same	Same	Same
Average pulled value	Same	Same	Same
Variance	Lower	Default	Higher
Chance of a “middle” pull	Higher	Default	Lower
Chance of a big swing (high or low)	Lower	Default	Higher

The math guarantee: across thousands of openings, all three risk levels produce the same expected value. They just deliver it on different schedules. Chill spreads the value out more evenly; Hot bunches it into rarer big moments.

How the odds actually shift

Every pack tier publishes a probability table — for example, “30% chance of a pull worth $40-$50, 20% chance of $50-$100,” and so on. Risk level adjusts those probabilities, but the math is constrained to keep the expected value identical.

• Chill pulls weight toward the buckets closest to the pack’s average value. You’re less likely to draw from the very-low or very-high buckets.
• Hot does the opposite — it redistributes weight away from the middle. Outer buckets (both low and high) get more probability, but the average across all buckets remains the same.

You can see the adjusted probability table for each risk level on the pack page before you spend a cent.

When to pick which

Pick Chill when…

• You want predictable outcomes
• You’re new to pack opening and want to feel the floor before chasing ceilings
• You’re trying to roughly preserve value rather than swing for a grail
• You’re opening many packs and want smoother results overall

Pick Standard when…

• You want the default experience — balanced odds with no tilt
• You’re not sure what risk level fits your style yet
• You’re comparing packs across games and want apples-to-apples odds

Pick Hot when…

• You’re hunting for chase cards and willing to accept more floor pulls in exchange
• You enjoy the swings — bigger wins, bigger losses
• You’re targeting specific high-end cards in the pool and want them to actually be reachable
• You’re playing for the thrill, not the floor

A few things to know

• Risk levels apply to standard pack tiers only. Custom packs use a slider-based risk system (0–100) that works similarly but with finer granularity.
• You pick risk level per pack opening. Open a Chill Bronze now, a Hot Gold later — no commitment.
• Average value ≈ pack price across all levels. No risk level is “the good deal.” They’re three different ways to receive the same expected value.
• The CatchBack guarantee applies regardless. Whatever you pull, you can accept a buyback offer at 80% market value (or 90% within 5 minutes of opening). Risk level doesn’t change that.

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Want to try a custom pack with full control over the odds and risk profile? Build your own.